[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":2497},["ShallowReactive",2],{"strategy-n07":3},{"collection":4,"collection_name":5,"testable":6,"original":7,"bars_label":8,"universe_short":9,"rule_short":10,"id":11,"name":12,"family":13,"tags":14,"universe":17,"bars":18,"rules":19,"sizing":20,"cadence":21,"prompt":22,"verdict":23,"result":24,"chart":56},"orbital","Orbital Strategies",true,null,"Daily","TQQQ (3x Nasdaq-100)","Hold TQQQ while its daily close is above its own 200-day simple moving average, and hold cash while it is below.","N07","200-day trend switch, TQQQ","Trend filter",[15,16],"Trend following","Leveraged ETF","One fund: TQQQ (ProShares UltraPro QQQ), which seeks three times the Nasdaq-100's daily return","daily","Hold TQQQ while its daily close is above its own 200-day simple moving average, and hold cash while it is below. At each session's close (13:00 ET on half days), the program averages TQQQ's last 200 daily closes, that day's included, and acts at the next session's open: holding nothing, it buys with 95% of the account's value when the close is above the average; holding shares, it sells all of them when the close is below it. A close exactly on the average changes nothing, and if the close on the day of a sale is back above the average, it buys again the next morning, as it did 8 times. The average uses TQQQ's own closes, not QQQ's or the Nasdaq-100's, because a program reads only its own symbol's bars; past closes are adjusted for TQQQ's share splits as of each day, so a split cannot set off a sale, but not for its dividends. TQQQ's daily bars from before January 3, 2017 are loaded first, at least the 200 the run requires, so the average is complete from the first session: the first purchase was decided at that day's close and filled at the January 4 open, and TQQQ has a bar on every one of the test's 2,450 sessions. The 95% is of the account's value at the previous session's close, turned into whole shares at the price of the close that set off the purchase, so on those 8 next-morning buybacks it is 95% of what the account was worth before the sale, not of the cash the sale brought in. A purchase that would cost more than the cash at the open is refused whole, not cut down, and the program decides again at that session's close; when the account was already all cash at the previous close, that takes an open more than about 5.2% above the close that set it off. None of this run's 24 purchases was refused. Long only, on a cash account: what a purchase leaves over and the fund's dividends stay in cash, which earns nothing, and no shares are added while it holds. A position still open on the last day is valued at that day's close and not sold, as the one bought on July 31, 2026 was when the test ended on October 1, 2026.","95% of the account's value at the previous session's close, in whole TQQQ shares at the price of the close that set off the purchase, unchanged until the sale; the rest stays in cash","Every session: decides at the close and trades at the next open only when the close is above the average while it is in cash or below it while it holds: 24 purchases and 23 sales from 2017 to 2026","Trade TQQQ on daily bars. Build it as a program that uses only daily data, decides on every daily bar and has a 200-bar warm-up. On each bar, take the simple average of TQQQ's last 200 daily closes, that day's close included. If it holds no shares and has no order pending, buy with 95% of equity when the close is above the average. If it holds shares, sell all of them when the close is below the average; a close equal to the average does nothing. Orders fill at the next session's open. Long only, on a cash account with no margin. Use TQQQ itself as the benchmark. Backtest from January 3, 2017 to October 1, 2026 with $100,000.","beat",{"status":25,"verdict":23,"period":26,"total_return":27,"cagr":28,"sharpe":29,"deflated_sharpe":30,"max_dd":31,"win_rate":32,"profit_factor":33,"trades":34,"spy_return":35,"spy_cagr":36,"spy_sharpe":37,"spy_max_dd":38,"checks":39,"notes":55},"done","Jan 3, 2017 to Oct 1, 2026",3040.82,42.46,0.91,0.47,47.42,52.2,5.85,23,295.11,15.15,0.64,33.7,[40,43,46,49,52],[41,42],"Versions tried","16 across the seven leveraged-fund trend strategies",[44,45],"Discounted Sharpe","0.47: the raw 0.91 less the 0.44 the best of 16 tries would reach by luck",[47,48],"Chance it beats luck","92.5% that its true Sharpe tops 0.44",[50,51],"Data","Daily bars, 2,450 sessions",[53,54],"Costs","Alpaca's $0 commission, 0.05% slippage a side","16 versions were tried across the seven leveraged-fund trend strategies, and their Sharpes ran from 0.39 to 1.18. The best of 16 tries with no real edge would be expected to reach about 0.44 by luck alone; this run's 0.91 clears that by 0.47, and the chance that its true Sharpe is above it is 92.5%. TQQQ was picked in October 2026, with hindsight of how the fund had done since 2017; the same program on UPRO, the 3x S&P 500 fund, made 365% over the same years with a Sharpe of 0.53. The 200-day length is the textbook setting and was fixed before the first run. Holding TQQQ through the whole test, with dividends reinvested, made about 2,958%, close to this strategy's 3,041%, so the average changed the ride more than the result. TQQQ fell 82% from its November 19, 2021 high by December 28, 2022; the strategy, 24% below its own high of that day when it sold on January 19, 2022, stayed in cash until February 3, 2023, and its deepest fall from that high was 29%, on March 17, 2023, after three quick round trips that February. It still fell 30% or more from a high seven times, the deepest 47% from February 19 to March 9, 2020, the day TQQQ first closed below its average, and it ended the test 16% below its June 2, 2026 high.",{"curve":57,"spy":1486},{"id":11,"name":12,"bars_label":8,"window":18,"ret":27,"cagr":28,"sharpe":29,"spy":35,"points":58},[59,62,65,68,71,74,77,80,83,86,89,92,95,98,101,104,107,110,113,116,119,122,125,128,131,134,137,140,143,146,149,152,155,158,161,164,167,170,173,176,179,182,185,188,191,194,197,200,203,206,209,212,215,218,221,224,227,230,233,236,239,242,245,248,251,254,257,260,263,266,269,272,275,278,281,284,287,290,293,296,298,301,304,307,310,313,316,319,322,325,328,331,334,337,340,343,345,347,349,351,353,355,357,359,361,363,365,367,369,371,373,375,377,379,381,383,385,388,391,394,397,400,403,406,409,412,415,417,419,422,425,428,431,434,437,440,443,446,449,452,455,458,461,464,467,470,473,476,479,482,485,488,491,494,497,500,503,506,509,512,515,518,521,524,527,530,533,536,539,541,543,545,547,549,551,553,555,558,561,564,567,570,573,576,579,582,585,588,591,594,597,600,603,606,609,612,615,618,621,624,627,630,633,636,639,642,645,648,651,654,657,660,663,666,669,672,675,678,681,684,687,690,693,696,699,702,705,708,711,714,717,720,723,726,729,732,735,738,741,744,747,750,753,756,759,762,765,768,771,774,777,780,783,786,789,792,795,798,801,804,807,810,813,816,819,822,824,826,828,830,832,834,836,838,840,842,844,846,848,850,852,854,856,858,860,862,864,866,868,870,872,874,876,878,880,882,884,886,888,890,892,894,896,898,900,902,904,906,908,910,912,914,916,918,920,922,924,926,928,931,934,937,939,941,943,946,949,952,955,958,961,964,967,970,973,976,979,982,985,988,991,994,997,1000,1003,1006,1009,1012,1015,1018,1021,1024,1027,1030,1033,1036,1039,1042,1045,1048,1051,1054,1057,1060,1063,1066,1069,1072,1075,1078,1081,1084,1087,1090,1093,1096,1099,1102,1105,1108,1111,1114,1117,1120,1123,1126,1129,1132,1135,1138,1141,1144,1147,1150,1153,1156,1159,1162,1165,1168,1171,1174,1177,1180,1183,1186,1189,1192,1195,1198,1201,1204,1207,1210,1213,1216,1219,1222,1225,1228,1231,1234,1237,1240,1243,1246,1249,1252,1255,1257,1259,1261,1263,1265,1267,1269,1271,1273,1275,1278,1280,1283,1286,1289,1292,1295,1298,1301,1304,1307,1310,1313,1316,1319,1322,1325,1328,1331,1334,1337,1340,1343,1346,1349,1352,1355,1358,1361,1364,1367,1370,1373,1376,1379,1382,1385,1388,1391,1394,1397,1400,1403,1405,1407,1409,1411,1414,1417,1420,1423,1426,1429,1432,1435,1438,1441,1444,1447,1450,1453,1456,1459,1462,1465,1468,1471,1474,1477,1480,1483],[60,61],"2017-01-03",1,[63,64],"2017-01-06",1.0534,[66,67],"2017-01-13",1.0838,[69,70],"2017-01-20",1.085,[72,73],"2017-01-27",1.1499,[75,76],"2017-02-03",1.1459,[78,79],"2017-02-10",1.1906,[81,82],"2017-02-17",1.2559,[84,85],"2017-02-24",1.2686,[87,88],"2017-03-03",1.2885,[90,91],"2017-03-10",1.2974,[93,94],"2017-03-17",1.3135,[96,97],"2017-03-24",1.2812,[99,100],"2017-03-31",1.3313,[102,103],"2017-04-07",1.3192,[105,106],"2017-04-13",1.2732,[108,109],"2017-04-21",1.333,[111,112],"2017-04-28",1.4351,[114,115],"2017-05-05",1.4813,[117,118],"2017-05-12",1.5141,[120,121],"2017-05-19",1.4852,[123,124],"2017-05-26",1.5927,[126,127],"2017-06-02",1.666,[129,130],"2017-06-09",1.5508,[132,133],"2017-06-16",1.5001,[135,136],"2017-06-23",1.5947,[138,139],"2017-06-30",1.469,[141,142],"2017-07-07",1.4737,[144,145],"2017-07-14",1.614,[147,148],"2017-07-21",1.679,[150,151],"2017-07-28",1.6691,[153,154],"2017-08-04",1.6596,[156,157],"2017-08-11",1.6046,[159,160],"2017-08-18",1.571,[162,163],"2017-08-25",1.5946,[165,166],"2017-09-01",1.7275,[168,169],"2017-09-08",1.6659,[171,172],"2017-09-15",1.7235,[174,175],"2017-09-22",1.6764,[177,178],"2017-09-29",1.7109,[180,181],"2017-10-06",1.7853,[183,184],"2017-10-13",1.8098,[186,187],"2017-10-20",1.8206,[189,190],"2017-10-27",1.9067,[192,193],"2017-11-03",1.9802,[195,196],"2017-11-10",1.9952,[198,199],"2017-11-17",2.0022,[201,202],"2017-11-24",2.0897,[204,205],"2017-12-01",2.0174,[207,208],"2017-12-08",2.0222,[210,211],"2017-12-15",2.1329,[213,214],"2017-12-22",2.1349,[216,217],"2017-12-29",2.0677,[219,220],"2018-01-05",2.3131,[222,223],"2018-01-12",2.4186,[225,226],"2018-01-19",2.5001,[228,229],"2018-01-26",2.6986,[231,232],"2018-02-02",2.4096,[234,235],"2018-02-09",2.0299,[237,238],"2018-02-16",2.3817,[240,241],"2018-02-23",2.5114,[243,244],"2018-03-02",2.4156,[246,247],"2018-03-09",2.7239,[249,250],"2018-03-16",2.6276,[252,253],"2018-03-23",2.0925,[255,256],"2018-03-29",2.1435,[258,259],"2018-04-06",2.0873,[261,262],"2018-04-13",2.2523,[264,265],"2018-04-20",2.2805,[267,268],"2018-04-27",2.2657,[270,271],"2018-05-04",2.3637,[273,274],"2018-05-11",2.5409,[276,277],"2018-05-18",2.4564,[279,280],"2018-05-25",2.5429,[282,283],"2018-06-01",2.6639,[285,286],"2018-06-08",2.7317,[288,289],"2018-06-15",2.8387,[291,292],"2018-06-22",2.7704,[294,295],"2018-06-29",2.6071,[297,292],"2018-07-06",[299,300],"2018-07-13",2.9423,[302,303],"2018-07-20",2.9127,[305,306],"2018-07-27",2.8469,[308,309],"2018-08-03",2.9452,[311,312],"2018-08-10",2.9616,[314,315],"2018-08-17",2.9275,[317,318],"2018-08-24",3.0427,[320,321],"2018-08-31",3.2319,[323,324],"2018-09-07",2.9756,[326,327],"2018-09-14",3.0965,[329,330],"2018-09-21",3.0768,[332,333],"2018-09-28",3.1841,[335,336],"2018-10-05",2.9213,[338,339],"2018-10-12",2.5195,[341,342],"2018-10-19",2.3636,[344,342],"2018-10-26",[346,342],"2018-11-02",[348,342],"2018-11-09",[350,342],"2018-11-16",[352,342],"2018-11-23",[354,342],"2018-11-30",[356,342],"2018-12-07",[358,342],"2018-12-14",[360,342],"2018-12-21",[362,342],"2018-12-28",[364,342],"2019-01-04",[366,342],"2019-01-11",[368,342],"2019-01-18",[370,342],"2019-01-25",[372,342],"2019-02-01",[374,342],"2019-02-08",[376,342],"2019-02-15",[378,342],"2019-02-22",[380,342],"2019-03-01",[382,342],"2019-03-08",[384,342],"2019-03-15",[386,387],"2019-03-22",2.3315,[389,390],"2019-03-29",2.3296,[392,393],"2019-04-05",2.5173,[395,396],"2019-04-12",2.5602,[398,399],"2019-04-18",2.6193,[401,402],"2019-04-26",2.751,[404,405],"2019-05-03",2.7625,[407,408],"2019-05-10",2.5074,[410,411],"2019-05-17",2.4142,[413,414],"2019-05-24",2.2701,[416,414],"2019-05-31",[418,414],"2019-06-07",[420,421],"2019-06-14",2.2793,[423,424],"2019-06-21",2.4989,[426,427],"2019-06-28",2.4383,[429,430],"2019-07-05",2.6014,[432,433],"2019-07-12",2.6963,[435,436],"2019-07-19",2.5907,[438,439],"2019-07-26",2.7569,[441,442],"2019-08-02",2.4364,[444,445],"2019-08-09",2.3845,[447,448],"2019-08-16",2.3308,[450,451],"2019-08-23",2.2083,[453,454],"2019-08-30",2.3891,[456,457],"2019-09-06",2.5392,[459,460],"2019-09-13",2.573,[462,463],"2019-09-20",2.5016,[465,466],"2019-09-27",2.3715,[468,469],"2019-10-04",2.4248,[471,472],"2019-10-11",2.5024,[474,475],"2019-10-18",2.5235,[477,478],"2019-10-25",2.6705,[480,481],"2019-11-01",2.7991,[483,484],"2019-11-08",2.8947,[486,487],"2019-11-15",2.9542,[489,490],"2019-11-22",2.9155,[492,493],"2019-11-29",3.0514,[495,496],"2019-12-06",3.0364,[498,499],"2019-12-13",3.1327,[501,502],"2019-12-20",3.3351,[504,505],"2019-12-27",3.4391,[507,508],"2020-01-03",3.4606,[510,511],"2020-01-10",3.6599,[513,514],"2020-01-17",3.9033,[516,517],"2020-01-24",3.8622,[519,520],"2020-01-31",3.663,[522,523],"2020-02-07",4.1766,[525,526],"2020-02-14",4.4653,[528,529],"2020-02-21",4.2196,[531,532],"2020-02-28",3.0242,[534,535],"2020-03-06",3.018,[537,538],"2020-03-13",2.6767,[540,538],"2020-03-20",[542,538],"2020-03-27",[544,538],"2020-04-03",[546,538],"2020-04-09",[548,538],"2020-04-17",[550,538],"2020-04-24",[552,538],"2020-05-01",[554,538],"2020-05-08",[556,557],"2020-05-15",2.6441,[559,560],"2020-05-22",2.7537,[562,563],"2020-05-29",2.876,[565,566],"2020-06-05",3.1214,[568,569],"2020-06-12",2.946,[571,572],"2020-06-19",3.2602,[574,575],"2020-06-26",3.1072,[577,578],"2020-07-02",3.5831,[580,581],"2020-07-10",4.0952,[583,584],"2020-07-17",3.8777,[586,587],"2020-07-24",3.6865,[589,590],"2020-07-31",4.1376,[592,593],"2020-08-07",4.3998,[595,596],"2020-08-14",4.4184,[598,599],"2020-08-21",4.8936,[601,602],"2020-08-28",5.4584,[604,605],"2020-09-04",4.9047,[607,608],"2020-09-11",4.2179,[610,611],"2020-09-18",4.0376,[613,614],"2020-09-25",4.2437,[616,617],"2020-10-02",4.3564,[619,620],"2020-10-09",4.886,[622,623],"2020-10-16",5.0239,[625,626],"2020-10-23",4.824,[628,629],"2020-10-30",4.0711,[631,632],"2020-11-06",5.241,[634,635],"2020-11-13",5.0253,[637,638],"2020-11-20",4.9953,[640,641],"2020-11-27",5.4412,[643,644],"2020-12-04",5.7989,[646,647],"2020-12-11",5.5821,[649,650],"2020-12-18",6.0312,[652,653],"2020-12-24",6.0422,[655,656],"2020-12-31",6.2886,[658,659],"2021-01-08",6.5808,[661,662],"2021-01-15",6.1359,[664,665],"2021-01-22",6.9516,[667,668],"2021-01-29",6.2589,[670,671],"2021-02-05",7.281,[673,674],"2021-02-12",7.6125,[676,677],"2021-02-19",7.2479,[679,680],"2021-02-26",6.1728,[682,683],"2021-03-05",5.7965,[685,686],"2021-03-12",6.1246,[688,689],"2021-03-19",5.984,[691,692],"2021-03-26",6.1335,[694,695],"2021-04-01",6.6332,[697,698],"2021-04-09",7.4168,[700,701],"2021-04-16",7.7297,[703,704],"2021-04-23",7.5402,[706,707],"2021-04-30",7.4437,[709,710],"2021-05-07",7.1776,[712,713],"2021-05-14",6.638,[715,716],"2021-05-21",6.6711,[718,719],"2021-05-28",7.0943,[721,722],"2021-06-04",7.1901,[724,725],"2021-06-11",7.5512,[727,728],"2021-06-18",7.6318,[730,731],"2021-06-25",8.1225,[733,734],"2021-07-02",8.7573,[736,737],"2021-07-09",8.9248,[739,740],"2021-07-16",8.6753,[742,743],"2021-07-23",9.4355,[745,746],"2021-07-30",9.1722,[748,749],"2021-08-06",9.4265,[751,752],"2021-08-13",9.4754,[754,755],"2021-08-20",9.3831,[757,758],"2021-08-27",10.024,[760,761],"2021-09-03",10.4617,[763,764],"2021-09-10",10.0551,[766,767],"2021-09-17",9.8269,[769,770],"2021-09-24",9.7959,[772,773],"2021-10-01",8.7656,[775,776],"2021-10-08",8.8097,[778,779],"2021-10-15",9.3769,[781,782],"2021-10-22",9.7608,[784,785],"2021-10-29",10.7174,[787,788],"2021-11-05",11.7787,[790,791],"2021-11-12",11.4266,[793,794],"2021-11-19",12.2322,[796,797],"2021-11-26",11.1088,[799,800],"2021-12-03",10.3673,[802,803],"2021-12-10",11.5658,[805,806],"2021-12-17",10.4169,[808,809],"2021-12-23",11.4286,[811,812],"2021-12-31",11.4872,[814,815],"2022-01-07",9.9531,[817,818],"2022-01-14",9.9303,[820,821],"2022-01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