The rules
When RSI(14) is below 40, place a buy limit 1.5% below the close (good for 3 bars). Once filled, place a sell limit 3% above the entry, renewed every 3 bars. There is no stop loss.
- Universe
- SPY, QQQ and IWM
- Bars
- daily
- Position size
- 15% of equity per ETF
- Rebalance
- daily check
Results
| Measure | Orbital re-test | Published | SPY, same days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Window | Oct 31, 2016 to Oct 30, 2026 | 2001-2025 | Oct 31, 2016 to Oct 30, 2026 |
| Total return | +35.02% | +94.66% | +316.62% |
| CAGR | +3.05% | +2.70% | +15.35% |
| Sharpe | −0.17 | 0.14 | 0.65 |
| Discounted Sharpe | −1.17 | — | — |
| Max drawdown | −12.0% | −19.1% | −33.7% |
| Win rate | 100.0% | 100.0% | — |
| Profit factor | ∞ | ∞ | — |
| Trades | 63 | — | — |
Hypothetical: a backtest with modeled costs, not traded with real money.
Hypothetical growth of $10,000
O03 Limit RSI Dip · +35.0% vs SPY +316.6%
Rebuild it in Orbital
Paste this into Orbital Chat. The Strategy Developer builds the workflow and asks before it runs any backtest.
Orbital Chat cannot set a limit entry yet, so a backtest it proposes buys at the next open. To match this test, run it from Backtesting and choose a limit entry in the Run dialog.
Trade SPY, QQQ and IWM on daily bars. If flat and RSI(14) is below 40, place a buy limit 1.5% below that close, good for 3 days, using 15% of equity. Take profit at 3% above the entry price. No stop loss. Long only; uninvested capital stays in cash. Backtest the last 10 years with $100,000.
Is it real?
- Strategies tested together
- 22
- Beta to SPY
- 0.29
- Alpha vs SPY
- −4.5% a year
- Costs paid
- $0, 0% of the gain before costs
- Data
- Daily bars, 2,514 sessions
- Fills
- Limit 1.5% below the signal close, good for 3 bars, filled only through the limit
Read this before you trust it
The 100% win rate comes from the exit rule: positions are only sold at a 3% gain, so losing trades stay open instead of being counted. Orbital fills the buy limit only when the price trades through it, not when it merely touches it.
Sources