The rules
Buy a stock at the next open when its two-day RSI (Wilder's) closes below 10 while its close is above its 200-day simple moving average; sell at the next open after a close above its 5-day average. At most five stocks at once, 19.8% of the account each, and when more qualify than there is room for, the most oversold go first. Money not in a stock stays in cash.
- Universe
- The ten largest chip companies listed in the US by market value at the close of December 30, 2016: INTC, TSM, QCOM, TXN, AVGO, NVDA, ASML, AMAT, NXPI, MU
- Bars
- daily
- Position size
- 19.8% of equity per stock, at most five at once
- Rebalance
- Checks every close
Results
| Measure | Orbital test | SPY, same days |
|---|---|---|
| Window | Nov 21, 2016 to Oct 30, 2026 | Nov 21, 2016 to Oct 30, 2026 |
| Total return | +129.26% | +302.23% |
| CAGR | +8.71% | +15.03% |
| Sharpe | 0.38 | 0.63 |
| Discounted Sharpe | −0.09 | — |
| Max drawdown | −21.9% | −33.7% |
| Win rate | 66.8% | — |
| Profit factor | 1.59 | — |
| Trades | 638 | — |
Hypothetical: a backtest with modeled costs, not traded with real money.
Hypothetical growth of $10,000
T04 2016 chip leaders, RSI(2) pullbacks · +129.3% vs SPY +302.2%
Rebuild it in Orbital
Paste this into Orbital Chat. The Strategy Developer builds the workflow and asks before it runs any backtest.
Trade INTC, TSM, QCOM, TXN, AVGO, NVDA, ASML, AMAT, NXPI and MU on daily bars, built as a program. Buy a stock when its 2-day Wilder RSI is below 10 and its close is above its 200-day simple moving average, scoring the entry by how far the RSI is below 10; sell when its close rises above its 5-day simple moving average. Hold at most five positions, 19.8% of equity each, taking the highest scores first. Backtest from November 21, 2016 to October 30, 2026 with $100,000.
Is it real?
- Strategies tested together
- 16
- Beta to SPY
- 0.31
- Alpha vs SPY
- +1.5% a year
- Costs paid
- $19,217, 13% of the gain before costs
- Data
- Daily bars, 2,499 sessions
- Fills
- Next open at market, sized at the fill
Read this before you trust it
The stocks were picked without hindsight of what came after 2016: the ten largest US-listed chip designers, makers and equipment makers by market value at the end of 2016, from companiesmarketcap.com's year-end values. Choosing chips as a theme in 2026 still carries hindsight, since chip stocks had an exceptional decade. The ranking date falls six weeks after the test begins, and all ten traded through the whole test. These rules were fixed on November 8, 2026, before any of them was run, and each is published whatever it showed. Each is a textbook setting, not tuned to these stocks.