The rules
Hold each of the twelve stocks while its daily close is above its 200-day simple moving average. A close above the average buys at the next open with 8.2% of the account; a close below it sells at the next open. Money not in a stock stays in cash.
- Universe
- The twelve largest holdings of Global X's AI and technology fund (AIQ) on November 5, 2026: MSFT, PLTR, AMZN, TSLA, AAPL, ORCL, NFLX, GOOGL, NVDA, SAP, TSM, CSCO
- Bars
- daily
- Position size
- 8.2% of equity per stock at entry, an equal share of twelve
- Rebalance
- Checks every close
Results
| Measure | Orbital test | SPY, same days |
|---|---|---|
| Window | Nov 21, 2016 to Oct 30, 2026 | Nov 21, 2016 to Oct 30, 2026 |
| Total return | +1226.69% | +302.23% |
| CAGR | +29.71% | +15.03% |
| Sharpe | 1.11 | 0.63 |
| Discounted Sharpe | 0.64 | — |
| Max drawdown | −27.1% | −33.7% |
| Win rate | 29.6% | — |
| Profit factor | 4.85 | — |
| Trades | 395 | — |
Hypothetical: a backtest with modeled costs, not traded with real money.
Hypothetical growth of $10,000
T06 AI leaders above the 200-day · +1226.7% vs SPY +302.2%
Rebuild it in Orbital
Paste this into Orbital Chat. The Strategy Developer builds the workflow and asks before it runs any backtest.
Trade MSFT, PLTR, AMZN, TSLA, AAPL, ORCL, NFLX, GOOGL, NVDA, SAP, TSM and CSCO on daily bars. Buy a stock when its close is above its 200-day simple moving average and sell it when its close falls below, with 8.2% of equity per position. Backtest from November 21, 2016 to October 30, 2026 with $100,000.
Is it real?
- Strategies tested together
- 16
- Beta to SPY
- 0.79
- Alpha vs SPY
- +15.2% a year
- Costs paid
- $11,066, 1% of the gain before costs
- Data
- Daily bars, 2,499 sessions
- Fills
- Next open at market, sized at the fill
Read this before you trust it
This basket was picked in November 2026, with hindsight: a fund's biggest holdings today are the companies that grew, which tilts any backtest of them toward beating SPY. From AIQ's list, SpaceX (its ticker SPCX belonged to another security before its June 2026 listing), Meta (Orbital's data keeps Meta's shares before October 2021 under the old ticker FB) and Tencent and Samsung (not listed on a US exchange) were skipped for the next names. Palantir listed on September 30, 2020 and joins once it has enough history of its own: at once for holding, after 126 sessions for the monthly rule and after 200 for the other two. These rules were fixed on November 8, 2026, before any of them was run, and each is published whatever it showed. Each is a textbook setting, not tuned to these stocks.