The rules
Enter a sector ETF when RSI(14) is below 35; stay in until RSI(14) is above 60.
- Universe
- XLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV and XLY
- Bars
- daily
- Position size
- Equal weight across holders, max 25% each
- On Orbital
- 25% of equity per ETF, up to four
- Rebalance
- weekly (Friday)
Results
| Measure | Orbital re-test | Published | SPY, same days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Window | Oct 31, 2016 to Oct 30, 2026 | 2000-2025 | Oct 31, 2016 to Oct 30, 2026 |
| Total return | +134.75% | +372.51% | +316.62% |
| CAGR | +8.91% | +6.16% | +15.35% |
| Sharpe | 0.38 | 0.34 | 0.65 |
| Discounted Sharpe | −0.62 | — | — |
| Max drawdown | −33.6% | −49.2% | −33.7% |
| Win rate | 79.3% | 62.1% | — |
| Profit factor | 4.85 | 2.15 | — |
| Trades | 92 | — | — |
Hypothetical: a backtest with modeled costs, not traded with real money.
Hypothetical growth of $10,000
W03 Weekly RSI Reversion · +134.8% vs SPY +316.6%
$10k$20k$40k20172019202120232025SPY
Rebuild it in Orbital
Paste this into Orbital Chat. The Strategy Developer builds the workflow and asks before it runs any backtest.
Trade the sector ETFs XLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV and XLY on daily bars, deciding on Fridays only. Buy an ETF with 25% of equity when RSI(14) closes below 35, most oversold first, and sell it when RSI(14) closes above 60. Long only; uninvested capital stays in cash. Backtest the last 10 years with $100,000.
Is it real?
- Strategies tested together
- 22
- Beta to SPY
- 0.62
- Alpha vs SPY
- −2.0% a year
- Costs paid
- $3,542, 3% of the gain before costs
- Data
- Daily bars, 2,514 sessions
- Fills
- Next open at market, sized at the fill
Read this before you trust it
Each position is 25% of equity, the original cap, and is decided on Fridays only. When more than four sectors qualify, the four most oversold are bought, where the original split the account among all of them. No rebalancing between trades.
Sources